Onigiri · No. 2
Bite-size Japan real estate
Japan's property map redrew itself in six years — and the capital wasn't the winner you'd expect.
Morning. Forget the 20-year charts — here's what Japan's property market did in just the last six years. It quietly split in two. Let's snack.
Since 2019, resale condos in Osaka jumped about ×1.6, and a string of regional markets followed. Tokyo? Up just ×1.3 — 8th of the 30 prefectures with enough sales to rank. The capital keeps grabbing headlines; the regions keep quietly outpacing it.
The takeaway: the fastest-appreciating condos in Japan mostly aren't in Tokyo.
Houses tell a darker story. In Gifu, the median house has lost about 29% of its value in just six years — and it's far from alone. Depopulation and a swelling tide of empty homes (akiya) keep dragging rural prices down: the building rots while only the land holds any worth.
The takeaway: in much of Japan the house is nearly free — you're really buying the land it sits on.
Here's the twist: while Tokyo lost the condo race, its houses topped the entire country — up about 19% since 2019, the best of all 47 prefectures. Lose the condo crown, keep the land crown. In Japanese property, location still settles everything.
The takeaway: Tokyo didn't stop winning — it just changed which game it was playing.
By the numbers
Sources: 5.8M MLIT transaction-price records (不動産取引価格情報). Multiples compare median ¥/m² by prefecture (resale condos / houses) from 2019 to 2025, minimum 80 sales per prefecture at both ends; latest year preliminary.
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